Do the Penguins Have the Stuff to Three-Peat?

It’s the burning question on the mind of every red-blooded Penguins fan. Do our guys have the stuff to three-peat?

While there are tons of issues to consider, I decided to depart from my more traditional analysis and zero in on four factors as a way of evaluating our chances—offensive rank, power-play rank, defensive rank and penalty-kill rank.

The results are intriguing.

OFFENSE

In Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, the Pens boast three of hockey’s supreme talents, not to mention big-game performers. Spread out over three separate lines, as coach Mike Sullivan is wont to do? I don’t envy opposing coaches, nor the matchup nightmares they face.

Blend in net-front wrecker Patric Hornqvist, who’s positively on fire, and a cast of secondary scorers including newcomer Derick Brassard, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, the black-and-gold forwards take a back seat to no one.

Nor does it hurt to have the league’s top power play, which clicked at a scalding 26.2 percent during the regular season.

Since the Pens are clearly banking on offense—fourth-best in the league—to outscore the opposition, I wanted to see how critical a super-charged attack is to capturing a Stanley Cup. Here’s a glance at the offensive rank of the past 10 champions.

GOALS FOR RANK
Season	Team	Rank	Season	Team	Rank
2016-17	Penguins	1st	2011-12	Kings	29th
2015-16	Penguins	3rd	2010-11	Bruins	8th
2014-15	Blackhawks	16th	2009-10	Blackhawks	3rd
2013-14	Kings	25th	2008-09	Penguins	4th
2012-13	Blackhawks	2nd	2007-08	Red Wings	3rd

Clearly a case of different strokes for different folks. While a high-powered offense certainly won’t hurt your chances of hoisting a Cup, the tight-checking Kings won a pair of titles with an offensively challenged group, as did the ’14-15 Blackhawks. So the ability to fill the other guy’s net isn’t necessarily the be-all and end-all.

Now for the power play.

POWER PLAY RANK
Season	Team	Rank	Season	Team	Rank
2016-17	Penguins	3rd	2011-12	Kings	17th
2015-16	Penguins	16th	2010-11	Bruins	20th
2014-15	Blackhawks	20th	2009-10	Blackhawks	16th
2013-14	Kings	27th	2008-09	Penguins	20th
2012-13	Blackhawks	19th	2007-08	Red Wings	3rd

Frankly, I was shocked to discover that possessing a potent power play seems to have little or no bearing on a team’s chances of hoisting Lord Stanley’s coveted silverware.

Hopefully, not a bad omen for our boys.

DEFENSE

The Pens have demonstrated the past two seasons that you don’t need to be the best defensive team to win a Cup. However, you do need to be able to keep the other team off the scoreboard, at least to a degree. I’m worried about the Pens’ ability to do that.

Here’s look at the defensive rank of Stanley Cup champions going back to 2007-08. The results are eye-popping.

GOALS AGAINST RANK
Season	Team	Rank	Season	Team	Rank
2016-17	Penguins	17th	2011-12	Kings	2nd
2015-16	Penguins	6th	2010-11	Bruins	3rd
2014-15	Blackhawks	1st	2009-10	Blackhawks	5th
2013-14	Kings	1st	2008-09	Penguins	18th
2012-13	Blackhawks	1st	2007-08	Red Wings	1st

The only club to capture a Cup with a defensive rank outside of the top five in my sample set? You guessed it…our Pens. We’ve done it three times.

Still, with our leaky 20th ranked defense, it seems our guys are pushing their luck this time around.

On to the penalty killing.

PENALTY KILLING RANK
Season	Team	Rank	Season	Team	Rank
2016-17	Penguins	21st	2011-12	Kings	4th
2015-16	Penguins	5th	2010-11	Bruins	16th
2014-15	Blackhawks	10th	2009-10	Blackhawks	4th
2013-14	Kings	11th	2008-09	Penguins	8th
2012-13	Blackhawks	3rd	2007-08	Red Wings	8th

Okay, so having an airtight penalty kill isn’t especially crucial to postseason success. Still, the Pens’ 17th ranked PK leaves a lot to be desired. Keep in mind our best shorthanded work occurred prior to the trade-deadline departure of Ian Cole.

Which leads me to my deepest, darkest concern. Minus Cole, the Pens are…in my humble opinion…a d-man short. When you factor in Kris Letang’s thoroughly uneven play, never mind the inevitable injuries? Not matter how you slice it, we don’t have a Cup-worthy ‘d.’

Same with our goaltending.

True, Matt Murray still possesses the wonderful bend-but-not-break quality that helped stake us to back-to-back Cups. However, there’s no Marc-Andre Fleury waiting in the wings should he falter. Not that I mind Casey DeSmith…the kid’s reasonably cool under fire. But ‘Flower’ he ain’t.

So How About the Flyers?

No longer a holy terror, the once ferocious Flyers have followed our lead under scholarly coach Dave Hakstol. And there’s no question Philly boasts some elite talent in forwards Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux and Jake Voracek and mobile young defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov.

All that flash can’t conceal a weak underbelly…the lack of a go-to goalie…a flaw the Pens exploited to the tune of 20 goals in four regular-season meetings between the former blood rivals.

While I look for an entertaining series, we should have more than enough to dispatch Philly. After that, our fate’s going to depend heavily on favorable matchups.

We’ll take it one series at a time.

Penguins in six.