Did the Penguins Miss Their Last Chance to Win a Cup?

I was mulling over potential changes to the Penguins’ roster when an unsettling thought occurred to me. Did we miss our last (and best) opportunity to recapture the Stanley Cup?

Maybe I’m naïve for thinking so, especially given the way the playoffs seem to favor heavier, more structured teams. But I felt this bunch had a legitimate chance to go all the way.

We won the MassMutual East and finished tied for fifth overall in points. We had the second most potent offense in the league and ranked fourth in goal differential. Yes, we had our flaws. But make no mistake…this was a good team. Darn good.

Even with Evgeni Malkin skating on one wheel, our center depth of Geno, Sidney Crosby, Jeff Carter and Teddy Blueger was unmatched. Boasting the likes of Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Kasperi Kapanen and Jared McCann, we possessed plenty of scoring on the wings. Our energy line of Blueger, Zach Aston-Reese and Brandon Tanev rated among the top shutdown trios in the league.

Perhaps we were a little thin defensively and in goal. But the tandem of Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin rated as one of the best in the league, and the Cody Ceci–Mike Matheson pairing was remarkably effective during the regular season. It’s easy to forget that much-maligned Tristan Jarry finished fourth in wins.

The juxtaposition of a flat salary cap, an expansion draft and a plethora of UFAs and RFAs, not to mention management’s stated desire to add size and aggression, virtually assures that changes are coming. Ones that could significantly alter the team’s chemistry, makeup…and effectiveness.

For starters, the expansion Seattle Kraken are going to get a very good player from our Pens, be it Blueger or McCann or Tanev or even Jason Zucker. Not to knock him, but if the Kraken take Zucker and his $5.5 cap hit, it’ll be a boon to our Penguins. If not…

…it’s liable to start a domino effect that could have a huge impact on our lineup. Kind of like a house of cards collapsing.

Even if Seattle passes on pending RFAs Blueger and Aston-Reese, there’s no guarantee we’ll re-sign them. Both have arbitration rights and are liable to command raises that’ll blow our tenuous salary structure sky-high.

If the Kraken select Tanev?  Nightmarish as it seems, it’s possible a highly effective checking line could vanish in one fell swoop. Leaving some significant holes to fill.

Nor does it help that quality depth guys like Frederick Gaudreau and Evan Rodrigues are UFAs who could potentially sign elsewhere. Ditto Ceci, who did such a solid job for us this season. Even if Cody’s willing to sign at a team-friendly rate, it’s liable to be well above the bargain-basement $1.25 million he earned this season. Again, putting pressure on our tight cap situation.

Given Jarry’s porous postseason performance, GM Ron Hextall will likely be seeking an upgrade in goal, either in the form of a starter or a 1A guy. The names most bandied about, Anaheim’s John Gibson and Toronto’s Frederik Andersen (a pending UFA), are both pricey ($6.4 million and $5 million cap hits respectively).

Then there’s the not-so-small matter of attrition. Our core is aging. Crosby and Letang will be 34 next season, Malkin 35. Carter, a trade deadline revelation, will turn 37 on New Year’s Day. Can they continue to be as effective, especially the latter?

Probably not.

I’ll toss a final log on the fire. If Hextall does succeed in bringing in bigger (and, potentially, slower) players, how will that affect coach Mike Sullivan and his desire to play a speed game? He didn’t do so well with a hybrid squad back in 2018-19 (swept in the first round of the playoffs) when then-GM Jim Rutherford added big bodies Nick Bjugstad and Erik Gudbranson.

Publicly at least, the Pens’ brain-trust still sees us as viable Cup contenders. However, unless Hextall performs miracles this offseason, I see us as a team in transition. A transition that could very likely result in a decline that paves the way to a much-dreaded but ultimately necessary rebuild.

Big and Tall Shop

Speaking of bigger players, the Pens have been linked at least superficially to left wing Matthew Tkachuk (Flames), right wing Zack Kassian (Oilers) and defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen (Sabres). All large and aggressive. All former first-round picks.

Add Colorado left wing Gabriel Landeskog to the mix. Despite a luminous career, the Avalanche may expose their captain and pending UFA in the expansion draft. An intriguing blend of size, sand and skill, the burly 6’1” 215-pounder is sure to command a sizeable raise over the $5.57 million/season he earned on his last contract.

The 28-year-old Swede sure would look nice in black and gold. A virtual impossibility, no doubt. But a guy can dream…