How Good Will the Penguins Be?

Last night as I was working the front desk at Wright’s Gym, a member and fellow hockey nut asked me what I thought of our Penguins chances this season. After talking in circles for a couple of minutes, I shrugged my shoulders and told him I honestly didn’t know.

If everything breaks our way, I can see us leapfrogging the Rangers and snagging third place in the Metro. I can just as easily envision us slugging it out with the Islanders and other Eastern foes for a wild-card slot, much like we did last season.

In my worst nightmares? We sink into the Metro mire along with the Capitals, Blue Jackets and Flyers.

There are just so many variables. So many things that could go right…or wrong.

To digress, the organization had an extremely active and, by most accounts, fruitful offseason. From FSG moving swiftly and decisively to can Ron Hextall and Brian Burke and their subsequent (brilliant) hiring of heavyweight Kyle Dubas and on through the newly minted exec’s dramatic overhaul, culminating in the Erik Karlsson blockbuster? To coin a phrase, we made all the right moves or pretty darn near.

As a result, there seems to be a renewed spirit and hunger permeating the team. Along with it, a renewed sense of optimism among players, coaches and Penguins Nation.

Is it enough to shove an aging team over the hump and back into Stanley Cup contention?

There’s a popular analogy in our culture regarding efforts to affect change. Something about swapping out the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Is that all we’ve done?

First, the good stuff. Dubas has made some significant improvements, especially on defense. Karlsson and coveted free-agent signee Ryan Graves, arguably the most sought-after defensemen on the market this summer, represent a dramatic upgrade over a declining Brian Dumoulin and aging Jeff Petry. Our blue line corps should be much more mobile and dynamic, the better to support coach Mike Sullivan’s speedy, puck retrieval game.

Deeper, too. I especially love yesterday’s surprise waiver claim of John Ludvig, an honest-to-goodness physical defenseman. It’s been ages since we’ve had any real muscle and bite on our backline. This kid will provide it (if he plays).

As for changes up front, especially in the bottom-six? The party line holds that we’ve improved our defensive presence while adding much-needed speed.

Have we actually achieved that?

I’ll be the first to admit I wasn’t thrilled about the Lars Eller signing. However, the 34-year-old enjoyed a solid preseason and looks to be just what the doctor ordered to anchor the third line. On the portside, I’m excited about Drew O’Connor. I think DOC’s poised for a massive breakout. I also like what I’ve seen from newcomer Jansen Harkins, who provides speed, jam…and most important…a willingness to compete. A weakness last season.

Although Matt Nieto and Noel Acciari didn’t exactly burn up the track in preseason, they should be upgrades over last season’s bunch. If not, we have a host of guys at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, including speedy veterans Vinnie Hinostroza and Colin White, who are ready, willing and able to step in.

My biggest bottom-six concern, literally? Thirty-eight-year-old Jeff Carter. Can big Jeff be effective in a reduced role? Or will he create a drag on the fourth line and force Sullivan to shorten his bench? A development that could prove ruinous to our aging stars.

Which leads me to my deepest, darkest fear…a potential drop-off among our top-six.

Last season just about everything went right for our marquee players. Franchise pillars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin missed nary a game while combining for 60 goals and 176 points. Incredibly impressive at this stage of their respective careers. Wingers Rickard Rakell and Jason Zucker produced at near optimal levels while combining for 55 goals. The only top-sixer to take a significant hit was Bryan Rust, yet he still managed a respectable 20 goals.

Can Reilly Smith effectively replace Zucker, in many ways our heart and soul? He’s looked a bit out of sync thus far. I’m especially concerned about Rust, whose drop-off I fear will prove to be more trend than outlier. As a rule, players of his scrambling, hustling ilk don’t age well.

Maybe I’m being pessimistic, but I just don’t see the stars aligning for us in a similar fashion this year. More due to age and the potential for injury than a decline in skill or desire.

Speaking of, the organization is pinning its hopes on a healthy season from goalie Tristan Jarry, who endured a succession of nagging injuries in the second half and down the home stretch in 2022-23.

When he’s in the pink, Tristan’s proven himself to be an above average goalie. With two all-star game appearances on his resume, well above at times.

Behind him? Reclamation project Alex Nedeljkovic looked sharp and poised in preseason. Can he rebound and flash the form he displayed in Carolina in ‘20-21, when he paced the league in goals against average (1.90) and save percentage (.932)? If not, is massive Magnus Hellberg (6’6” 220) capable of filling Casey DeSmith’s skates (figuratively speaking)? The huge Swede and former KHL stud has been mostly underwhelming (.886 save percentage) during brief NHL cameos.

Yet another worry? Our compete level. Will we bring the energy and intensity required to win on a nightly basis? We didn’t during the preseason.

I think we’ll hold our own in wide-open affairs, as we did against Buffalo last Friday night. However, what happens when foes defend the house and deny us access to the prime scoring areas? Do we have enough grind and gristle to muscle our way to the net? Or will we be shoved to the perimeter?

Peering into my admittedly cracked crystal ball, I think this season may look an awful lot like the last one. Despite Crosby’s impassioned pleas for consistency (a hallmark of our captain by the way) I think our Pens could once again resemble a sine wave on an oscilloscope, although perhaps not to the same extremes.

Karlsson’s the X-factor. He’ll be a huge boon to our top six and power play, not to mention our transition game, and have a very favorable impact overall.

Special teams should be improved. Hopefully, having a lineup more tailored to his specifications will help Sullivan and his staff get the most out of the team. He/they didn’t last season.

Back to my original question. How good will our Penguins be?

Your guess is as good as mine.