With all the talk still circulating about the rumored Erik Karlsson trade, even here on these pages I must have my say. Initially, I was only going to write this as a reply to our friend Mike on one of Rick Buker’s posts, but it morphed into something a bit longer.
Sorry Penguin Poopers, I must disagree about wasting more assets to obtain Karlsson.
Where I agree with the Karlssonites
- I won’t argue with you that Karlsson is better than Kris Letang (although there are those here in the ‘burgh that have tried arguing Letang’s ascendency for years). During our Cup runs, I would have flipped Letang for Karlsson in a heartbeat. Karlsson was just entering his prime years as a Defenseman while Letang was in the middle of his prime. However, I would have never wanted both on the same team, not even in the pre-Cap era. There just isn’t enough ice time to satisfy both prima donnas.
- I would also agree that Karlsson would probably thrive under Mike Sullivan‘s bass-ackwards, opposite world coaching where forwards cover the points and the front of their own nets while Defensemen drive the offense. However, I want Sullivan and his asinine, inverted schemes out of the ‘burgh.
Where I disagree with the friends of Karlsson
- It is bad optics to have anyone getting paid more than the face of your franchise, Sidney Crosby. Ok so that isn’t as important as the above, but it cannot be discounted.
- Our favorite flightless fowl already have a prima donna right-handed defenseman (RHD) wanting 24+ minutes per game and Power Play time. There is not enough TOI or pucks for both Karlsson and Letang and Letang has a full-blown 35+ NMC.
- Karlsson cannot be viewed as Letang’s successor, the San Jose Sharks‘ blue-liner is himself 33, still in his prime but on the back edge. By the time Letang’s contract expires Karlsson will also be out of his prime. A more logical choice for a possible Letang replacement would be to try and lure Oliwer Kaski back across the pond as I mentioned in a previous post. Kaski is only now entering his prime as a defenseman.
- I must disagree with those that argue Karlsson played on bad teams and that is an excuse for his poor defensive appearance. In his tenure with the Ottawa Senators, the Sens had a record of 300 Ws, 240 L, and 79 OTL with a Pts% of 0.548%. The San Jose team to which Karlsson went had only missed the playoffs twice from 97-98 until 18-19 when Karlsson arrived. The team he came from wasn’t bad, nor was the team where he was traded. It wasn’t until Karlsson got to San Jose that the Sharks started to fail.
- Therefore, given the above, not only do I not accept the argument that Karlsson’s bad D was a product of the teams on which he played, I contend he is not a difference maker. (Neither is Letang, but that is another story.) Ottawa failed with Karlsson during his growing years and San Jose failed during Karlsson’s prime. The only thing Karlsson accomplished in his 13-year career is personal, offensive stats.
- Since Karlsson isn’t a difference maker, the only way this team can be considered a true Cup contender is if we had difference makers on the roster. At one time both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were true difference makers. Perhaps the two-headed monster still is, when healthy and motivated. Both generational talents made it through all 82 games last season. However, I don’t think the odds are in favor of a repeat. Actually, if Vegas Futures were to post that game, I might put $1 down on that just in case we have a repeat. The odds of that happening could turn that $1 into a retirement fund.
- Part of the reason for the current cellar-dweller predicament in which the Sharks are mired can be argued is the price they paid to get a flashy, non-difference maker. It cost San Jose a 1st round pick (conditional) in 2019 and a 1st round pick in 2022. It also cost them a 2nd round pick in 2019 and 2021 and multiple prospects. (Rudolph Balcers, Dylan DeMelo, Joshua Norris, and Chris Tierney).
- If it cost San Jose the above Kings ransom, they will be looking for a similar return. Like the Sharks before them, the Penguins do not have that level of capital to throw away. any attempted trade will only result in crippling the Penguins for years to come. I may never live long enough to see another Cup hoisted in Pittsburgh.
- The Sharks will not accept a salary dump of Mikael Granlund s or Jeff Petry s or whatever in exchange for Karlsson without even more Capital, in terms of draft picks (we don’t have the prospects). Put yourselves in San Jose’s place. Would you want to throw Karlsson away for Granlund and Petry? Would you really take on that salary without any real return?
- If the Penguins were to waste any more future assets a more logical weak spot to shore up would be the post side of the defense. Ryan Graves was a good start, but I would rather Kyle Dubas try and pry either Noah Hanifin or Nikita Zadorov off the Calgary Flames than add redundancy in the shape of Karlsson.
Conclusion:
The grass isn’t always greener. This team has suffered 6 straight seasons now of unsuccessfully trying to find greener grass in other fields. Furthermore, you do not give a drowning man a glass of water, another Letang, even if a little better adds nothing to this team. Furthermore, A person can only drive one car at a time.
Karlsson hasn’t made a positive difference in the W/L column on any team he has played. Acquiring Karlsson will not move the needle any appreciable distance for the Penguins Cup dreams, not any more than any of the other countless, bootless moves a parade of Kool-Aid drinking GMs have buried this team under over the last 6-seasons.
The future is suddenly upon our Penguins and they are woefully unprepared as they and many fans are still dancing to Bruce Springsteen’s “Glory Days”
Post-Script
For all the Karlsson fans out there, you will probably get your fondest wish. Dubas will undoubtedly figure out a way to completely wreck this team for time in memoriam acquiring your jewel. Over the last 6 seasons, as this team has inexorably sunk down from the ranks of contender to pretender, the near constant has been the team doing the opposite of what I wished. As of this writing the only time the team did something I not only wished but proposed, even before the rumor mill took it up, was trading Matt Murray for the 2nd round draft pick that became Joel Blomqvist (who I coveted).
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For all of our Penguin Poop readers who want this Karlsson deal and hope for San Jose to take Petry's contract, Sheng Peng of SJHOCKEYNOW noted the following,
"What might a three-team deal look like with the Pens, and including Jeff Petry and his $6.25 million AAV for two more years?
It’s worth noting that it was recently reported Petry, armed with a 15-team No-Trade Clause in his contract, wouldn’t want to go to San Jose because it’s too far from his family. So in this case, a third team would be necessary to take on Petry."
So, all of you who want Karlsson in and Petry out, that appears to be a serious hurdle to over come. For me it is a bit of a relief.
Nice article there Rick. Yep, getting Karlsson might make the team much more of a defensive liability. But the for the fans and writers the team would become much more interesting to follow.
Hey did you hear about Matt Murray being placed on LTIR for Toronto? Peculiar stuff there.
Hey Bold Ruler,
Thanks, I just did see about Murray being placed on LTIR for that concussion he had last season. I didn't read too deeply, didn't have the time but I am now wondering if he is going the route of Simon Despres. I liked Despres when he was here in the 'burgh. He made an aging Scuderi look like he still was a viable NHL player. Unfortunately he had concussion issues that forced him to retire - although I thought I saw something last season about him looking to make a comeback.
Jim, Mike, Rick,
It is ok for friends to disagree, and we are at odds. This isn’t the first time that I have been an outlier and it probably won’t be the last.
Barring divine intervention, it is over! Karlsson or not, it is over! There is no depth at Center. It is not only possible but probable that either Crosby or Malkin miss more than a handful of games. They will be 36 and 37 respectively this season. The projected 3rd line Center, Eller is 33, with either Granlund (30) or Carter (38, 39 in January) as 4th line.
Goaltending is worse than a question mark, regardless of how much money they throw at it. Jarry has never been effective after the 22nd game of the season in his whole career. DeSmith has never been a starter and Nedeljkovic only had 1 good season, on strong defensive Carolina team during the play your own division during the regular season COVID return. Sullivan teams do not provide solid D.
The team actually got older than it was last season and it was the oldest team in the league last year.
A much younger Karlsson couldn’t help the aging dinosaurs in San Jose and the older, more time worn Karlsson won’t help this team.
Jim, I understand what you are saying about Crosby wanting Karlsson, but I am sorry, I wouldn’t give Crosby a scorpion, even if he asked for it, nor would I want to give this team another Bressard deal.
Everybody wanted Bressard. They said Bressard would ensure the core getting another Cup but all it did was hasten the end and strip the team of assets for retooling. Had the team shook off its backwards looking delirium back then and retooled, we wouldn’t be having this conversation, a conversation about a 1 last gasp. This team would still be a viable contender. A continuation of that strategy, a doubling down on that strategy can only exacerbate the problem the team faces now.
If the team wants a dynamic RHD, then Kaski is a far better option to investigate. Livingstone, who I suggested they sign at the end of the season this past season could have been another option and both of those options are far cheaper.
I pray I am wrong, because as history has shown the team doesn’t ever do what I want. You guys will more than likely get your wish. And I will have to watch another playoff without the Pens.
The team I wanted would have
Center: Crosby, Malkin, Lundle, and Sundqvist
L Wing: Guentzel, Mikheyev, Tanev, (Zohorna, O’Conner, Lafferty)
R Wing: Rust, Rakell, Kapanen, (Angello, Puustenin, Lafferty)
L Def: Pedan, Oleksiak, K’Andre Miller, Hague (Belliveau, Lamoureux, Pulli)
R Def: Letang, Kaski, Addison, Marino
Goal: Gustavsson, (maybe MAF), Reideborn, (Gauthier, Blomqvist)
That team would be a Cup contender, not a pretender dreaming about what once was.
I am sorry guys, but I have to tell it like I see it.
Quick addendum,
That list of players is not a post hoc compilation, it is based on what I have written over the past 6 season. it contains players the team would have drafted had they not thrown away draft picks in a delirium similar to a gamblers sickness trying to play one more hand or one more throw of the dice when the cause was already lost.
Also I forgot to include Jake Livingston among the RHD (Watch for him this season in Nash). And there is a possibility Hallander and Lindberg would not have ran back to Europe.
Although I liked McCann and never would have let him go if I had him, the truth is, since I would never had traded for Bressard, I never would have then traded him to Fla for McCann and Bjugstad.
And although I never would have traded the 1st round pick for Reaves, chances are I would have went after him when his contract was up, in FA, after I would have fired Sullivan for insubordination when he contradicted me in the media after the playoff loss to the Capitals.
Hey Coach,
As always you present your position very well with regards to EK. I understand your logic old friend but in this case I must agree with Mike. I believe EK would help our team in a very important way and I have local information that you
may not be aware of. If I may I want to share a few things. It is based on this information that I made my conclusion.
1. Who is the most important Penguin ? Easy answer Crosby.What would you do to get him to sign an extension next year ?
2. EK lives in Ottawa during the off season and his wife is from Ottawa and they intend to retire in Ottawa.
3. A few weeks ago EK returned to Sweden to accept a National Award as the top Swedish Hockey player in the world for 2023. He gave an interesting interview to Swedish media in which he said " He talked to Crosby several times since the end of the NHL season. ?? Is that not interesting? He also mentioned his former team mate and close friend, Pens' Assistant GM Jason Spezza as well.
4. Final point. Before Kyle Dubas was hired to take over the Penguins he had a private meeting with Crosby.That conversational was pivotal for Dubas to accept the job. Gee, I wonder what they talked about Coach ??
I can tell you one thing because Dubas addressed it at his first News Conference as President of Hockey.When asked about an extension for Crosby he tersely said " we will deal with that next year.Sid just wants to win now !!" Pretty clear to me.
Crosby is the one driving the bus Coach....He knows Letang can not do the job alone.He needs help. Especially the power play.
I wish I could say more but to my family and friends that know Crosby and his family they say the best way to get Crosby to resign next year is to give him some super talent that can help him win. He is not interested in missing the play offs one more time.
So this is why I am in full support of the EK trade if they can get a third team to get his salary down to 6 million level and they can get Petry to go along. He has declined to go to San Jose. So there are some issues to get worked out.
For me keeping Crosby happy is the issue.
Cheers
Jim
.
Hey Other Rick,
As usual, passionate, entertaining and brilliantly done!
Like Mike, I'm going to respectfully disagree. I do think Karlsson would make us a better team, particularly in transition and on the power play. He'd certainly add another top-end talent to the mix. Someone on another site mentioned it would be great to have puck-moving defensemen on the ice at all times with Sid and Geno. And, at least on paper, I kind of like the look of the Graves-Letang and Petersson-Karlsson pairings (or vice versa).
Having opined all that, do I think acquiring Karlsson would put us on a list, short or otherwise, of Stanley Cup contenders? No. We may not even be a playoff team with him. But I'm fairly certain we're not one without him, so I guess I say go for it.
There's going to be h-e-double hockey sticks to pay a few years down the road no matter what we do. With our core still under contract, might as well do everything we can to improve the team...provided it doesn't cost too much in the way of futures.
Rick
Great article...
but Mike this team isn't a contender, even with the "Improved " bottom six we are not,
I am leaning towards no Karlsson..I don't think Karlsson gets us in... Penguins couldn't find the extra to beat the worst teams to get in last season and Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo, Columbus and Islanders will be there this coming season.
So what? mortgage the future for a shot at a playoff appearance?
Nope.
The Team won't be better with Sullivan still driving the bus...same old same old.
Anyone else tried of hearing about Karlsson??
Amen Pens4ever!
The Other Rick
Also, your statement about him not making a difference in the w/l column
on any them he's played for? Well he's never played with Crosby!! Who
just recently along with Letang put their stamp on Dubas making the
trade.. If he's able to pull this off on his terms it give the Pen's a huge lift
to begin their rebuild. If I'm reading you correctly that's exactly what
you want. They dont't have another player on the team that can the
return that Karlsson can bring except Crosby. It's a no brainer.
There are many times we agree Mike but this isn't one of them. And unfortunately for me, history is against me, the team has almost never done what I wanted, so the odds are in your favor.
However, he got to SJ when they were winning. The team was only 2yr past a Cup final appearance against the Penguins. That was a solid team.
Also, you are right he never played with Crosby before but
A. That statement acknowledge that Karlsson isn't the difference maker. It acknowledges that Crosby is the difference maker.
B. Karlsson still won't be playing with a Crosby; in his prime, or perhaps not at all. A 36 year old Crosby is not the same as the 28-29 year old Crosby of the Cup years. He is almost as old as the 39 year old Joe Thorton and 34 year old Joe Pavelski he played with in San Jose. The situations would be eerily similar.
Furthermore, Crosby has been extremely healthy for many seasons. Part of Crosby's health could very easily be related in the decline of the teams fortunes. If the team were still considered a true contender and Crosby the elite player he once was, opponents would play him harder and his chance of injury would be higher. Even as it stands, the odds of Crosby playing and not getting injured get shorter and shorter each season. If the team gets Karlsson, Karlsson could very easily be out there, counted on to carry the team - something he yet to do in 13 seasons.
With regards to the cost in terms of picks and prospects, it cost 2 first round picks, 2 second round picks and 4 prospects for SJ to get Karlsson. This team has no prospects, not really which means they will at least have to pay with more draft picks to make up for a lack of prospects and that number could get higher if Dubas tries to unload Cap space between multiple teams. Even if a person thinks there is a chance that adding Karlsson to the roster makes them a contender, the age with its subsequent fragility makes any true level of contention tenuous at best. Therefore if the team trades away 2-1st picks and 2-2nd picks, it delays the inevitable rebuild to start at least 2 years from now, if not later.
And unfortunately, Karlsson does not represent a trade able asset. He has a full blown NMC, just 1 more non-movable piece.
I am sorry, Mike, on this one I can see no benefit and only pit falls, pit falls that won't go away any time soon in trading for Karlsson. This could end up being a worse trade than the Bressard trade. Everyone but me wanted the Penguins to trade for Bressard. My voice of reason was ignored. Odds are, my voice will get ignored again. Mores the pity.
The Other Rick
Again, I respectfully disagree. This is a chance to add an All Star to
your roster and gives you a valuable asset at the trade deadline
when teams are desperate and willing to give up draft picks and
prospects. I personally think this is a genius move by Dubas.
Think about it - the Pen's have nothing in terms of prospects and
what could he possibly give up in terms of draft picks or future
prospects that would hurt the rebuild "Nothing"!! Let me go back
to the horrible signings of Malkin & Letang, I said then that by Hextall
making a horrible business decision to give them long term deals
that it would set the organization back 5 years - now fans want
Dubas to perform a miracle. He knows this team has zero chance
to compete for a Cup but its important they stay competitive for the
sake of their fans and there core, but he's trying to aquire assets on
the cheap to start building for the future. If he pulls it off he can
increase the Pen's chances of a shorter rebuild to contend.