A month ago, I wrote an article pondering the Penguins playoff worthiness. With the start of the NHL regular season fast approaching, I thought I’d revisit the issue while attempting to answer a burning question.
Will the Penguins be any good?
Sure wish I knew. Truth be told, I could anticipate a wide range of outcomes for this group. If everything—and I mean everything—goes right, I could see us duplicating last season’s success and snagging a wild-card berth in the highly competitive Eastern Conference.
On the flip side, if our venerable core fades, the injury bug bites and/or the kids fail to pick up the slack, a bottom-ten finish might be in the cards. To say nothing of a sell-off at the trade deadline.
Most likely, the Pens will wind up somewhere between the extremes. I can easily envision us regressing by a dozen points or so. Not good enough to make the playoffs but not bad enough to qualify for a lottery pick. In other words, smack dab in the dreaded mushy middle.
Reasons for Optimism
If the Pens stay reasonably healthy (already proving to be a challenge) and the core continues to produce, we have the potential to score a lot of goals. I love the addition of Nicholas Robertson and think he could prove to be another Kyle Dubas steal. I like the fact that coach Dan Muse has slotted the kid on the top line next to Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell.
The third line of Ben Kindel centering for Bryan Rust and newcomer Andrei Kuzmenko showed great promise in training camp and the preseason—until it was systematically decimated by injuries and personal tragedy. If there’s a silver lining, it opens the door for prime prospects Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty and newcomer Hendrix Lapierre to prove themselves.
Our success (or failure) may very well hinge on the play of our second line, featuring Tommy Novak centering for Evgeni Malkin and countryman/sniper Egor Chinakhov. Last season, the trio displayed terrific chemistry, not to mention impressive production. Can they repeat their success? Not to put too much stock in it, but Chinakhov had a rather quiet camp and preseason. Hopefully not a portent of things to come.
Our new defensive tandems each feature a puck-mover paired with a stay-at-homer. On paper, they look balanced and capable. I’d feel more comfortable if Trevor van Riemsdyk, partnered with Kris Letang, wasn’t playing on his off side. Given how Tanger tends to use the entire ice surface, perhaps not a big deal. Hopefully, TvR will do his best Brian Dumoulin/Brett Kulak imitation and serve as a stabilizer for No. 58.
Reasons for Concern
Eventually, our venerated core is going to fade. Perhaps the decline has already begun. Most notably, we’ve seen a drop-off in the defensive play of Crosby and Rust the past few seasons. Letang’s struggles have been well-documented. Will Malkin be able to continue his surprising resurgence at age 40 while staying at least reasonably healthy?
A lack of grit and physicality worries me, too. Especially with teams like the Capitals, Flyers and Panthers muscling up. Although Declan Carlile, Kaedan Korczak and Connor Dewar will get involved and hulking Elmer Söderblom has the physical tools to be a force, when push comes to shove the Pens don’t quite stack up.
Team spirit may be an issue as well. Last season’s bunch oozed a palpable, all-for-one vibe. Wholly reminscent of the original Vegas Misfits. Maybe I’m reading too much into things, but I couldn’t help but notice our goal celebrations during the preseason were comparatively subdued. The last thing we need is to return to the blah, Milquetoast-ish ways that marked the late Mike Sullivan era.
Last, but certainly not the least of my concerns?
Goaltending.
Will Arturs Šilovs shed his Jekyll-and-Hyde tendencies—on full display during the preseason—and emerge as a bona fide No. 1, or at the very least a 1A? How will wunderkind Sergei Murashov fare in his first sustained tour of NHL duty?
I anticipate growing pains aplenty. Perhaps to the extent that Joel Blomqvist may be recalled by Thanksgiving.
My Prediction
Eight-five points and a non-playoff season.
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View Comments
Rick,
You ask an interesting question, "Will the Penguins be any good?" Judging by your final comment, your answer is no (Eight-five points and a non-playoff season). I can certainly see that as a possibility. In fact, if all of the moves by Metro Division teams pan out, then it may be worse than an 85 point season. However, if Metro GMs over tinkered with their teams the way Dubas did at the end of the year last season trading Kulak, or just in general with our HoHO always overloading the team with reclamation projects, then our Penguins could sneak back into the playoffs again. Of course injuries at key times always swing momentum.
I am not going to predict where the team finishes. I really haven't had time to scout the rest of the Metro. The predictions I will make though are
1) Robertson will have a career year in terms of offense, if he skates with Crosby and Rakell as the are projecting, but it will come at the expense of Sid and Rakell's offense.
2) Novak will continue to put up decent numbers whiole skating along side Malkin and Chinakhov but again Novak's boon will be Geno's and Egor's bane. Like Robertson with Crosby and Rakell, Novak will be the millstone pulling his line mates down.
3) without big bodies like Mantha and Brazeau to open up space for him, Kindel will not progress like everyone wants him to.
4) As Silovs plays more and more games, the book on him will grow and more and more teams will learn to pass the pucks off his pads for easy tap in goals and our ersatz Goalie will have far more 4 GA on 6 SA games like he did in back to back starts last season in the ll/21 loss to Min 5-0 followed by his 11/29 loss to TOR 7-2 than he will QS like his 3-0 blanking of NYR in last years opener. What was his Sv% again last year, 0.887 - that sounds about right for a repeat.
5) The only way any prospect will get a legitimate shot is if injures force Dubas' hand and that kid who gets the call walks on water getting multiple hat tricks in his cameo.
6) Even if Blomqvist is the kid who gets the shot because of injuries and he does walk on water with a Georges Vezina performance he will still get sent back down to WBS and ignored.
Oof, you seem a bit down!
I like Dan Muse as a head coach. I think he did terrific last year, and I expect him to be terrific this year. I am not worried about how goals in the preseason were celebrated. Many of them were veteran vs JV players, what's so exciting about that?
Once the regular season starts, I expect normal goal celebrations.
As for evaluating any of the players preseason play, it's a pass from me. That was the shortest camp and preseason I've ever seen, and it takes a little time to get things going.
That said, word was the 2nd and 3rd lines were showing awesome chemistry, while Sid and Nick learn each other.
Injuries will be the thing to watch on the offense. There is some depth but key players need to avoid missing too much time.
If no one is hurt, I expect to make the playoffs again.
Not down, just realistic.
Muse is far better than Sullivan but he made many mistakes last season to go with what he did well. If he learns from his mistakes then great, if he doesn't then move on.
The thing that is exciting about watching preseason games is getting to watch the prospects and when a coach is doing right by his team watching top prospects play with and against NHL level talent. And the most exciting part of watching those prospects is that they do represent an opportunity for growth and improvement in the team since they don't have a track record of failure, like the reclamation projects of low-end UFAs with which Dubas keeps cloggin the roster.
As for the Goalies and evaluating them, they all played with and against similar levels of veterans and prospects so that evaluating their preseason performances is fair and Blomqvist had the best best preseason of the three and Silovs the worst against similar talent levels. Therefore, it is more than reasonable to expect similar outcomes during the regular season, so long as each Goalie gets as many games against low end teams as they do high end teams.
Considering that the Penguins only ranked 20th in 5-on-5 Goals, no lines really showed any chemistry, so who ever said that the 2nd and 3rd lines were showing great chemistry must have been the same guy who said the team was down on Blomqvist because of his AHL playoff performance last season when Blomqvist didn't play any playoff games last year. And as I said of Roberetson and Novak, they will no doubt have good offensive output but at the expense of the rest of their respective line mates point totals.
Injuries are a part of hockey and all teams have to deal with them. I do think in the Penguins case injuries to certain players on this team could be a benefit, forcing the team to play a prospect rather than a reclamation project.
As for the Penguins making or not making the playoffs, I never said they wouldn't. In fact, I did write and do believe there is a chance but that chance doesn't reside within the organization itself. The Pens best chance for making a back-to-back playoff appearance rests with several factors, 1) Did other GMs over tinker with their rosters skrewing up their team's chemistry, 2) Injuries to key players on other teams for protracted periods, and 3) injuries to oxygen thief players on the Penguins roster blocking advancement for far more deserving prospects.