Penguins Slim Hopes Could Hinge on…Dan Vladar

The Penguins skate into tonight’s Game 4 fray at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philly facing a monumental uphill climb. Down 3-0 in their first-round series against the physical, opportunistic Flyers, the black-and-gold have no margin for error.

Lose, and we’ll be packing our bags and scheduling tee times. To use a time-honored sports cliché, there is no tomorrow if we fail.

Only four NHL teams have ever come back from three games down to win a playoff series, the 1942 Maple Leafs, the ’75 Islanders (against our Pens), the 2010 Flyers and the ’14 Kings. Needless to say, the odds aren’t in our favor.

Still, as long as there’s the slimmest sliver of hope, you’ve got to give it the old college try. Especially since this could be the final playoff series for a number of our veterans, including franchise pillars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Win or lose, changes are going to occur over the summer. Changes that could alter the trajectory of the team for the next several seasons and beyond.

To that end, coach Dan Muse plans to make some meaningful lineup tweaks. He’s reuniting sharpshooter Egor Chinakhov with comrade in arms Malkin. Given the pair’s marvelous and obvious chemistry, I haven’t a clue as to why Muse separated them in the first place, but who am I to question. I’m just glad they’ll be back together.

Elmer Söderblom returns to the third-line mix following a one-game absence, once again bumping Justin Brazeau to the press box. Although the metrics don’t necessarily agree, to my eye Söderblom has been more effective on the forecheck and better at getting to loose pucks.

On defense, Muse appears to be swapping out Connor Clifton in favor of Ilya Solovyov. Clifton’s underlying numbers aren’t bad, although he’s been on the ice for three 5v5 goals against, the most of any Pens defenseman this side of the Kris Letang–Sam Girard pairing. While I like elements of Solovyov’s game (good pass, size and physicality) he’s somewhat mistake-prone, which could feed the Flyers’ machine.

However, the development that could have the most impact may not involve the Pens at all. At least not directly.

In the midst of an outstanding series (.946 SV%, 1.33 GAA), Philly goalie Dan Vladar is, to quote Flyers coach Rick Tocchet, “banged up.” The rangy netminder appeared to sustain a couple of injuries in Game 3.

The first resulted from a Chinakhov blast the popped the blade off his right skate, forcing Vladar to move awkwardly until the play was finally whistled dead. The second, and more severe by appearance, occurred when Bryan Rust tumbled onto the netminder’s right forearm, which appeared to cause a great deal of pain and discomfort.

As a precaution, Tocchet held Vladar out of practice the past couple of days. Although there’s no indication at this stage Dan won’t be in net tonight, if he can’t go, Samuel Ersson will backstop the Flyers.

The 26-year-old Swede and former Ron Hextall pick is decidedly not Vladar. In addition to posting pedestrian numbers this season (.870 SV%, 3.12 GAA), he yielded six goals during the Pens’ 6-3 victory over the Flyers on January 15. According to Dobber Frozen Tools, in eight career appearances versus the Pens, all in the regular season, Ersson has an .879 SV% and 3.35 GAA, although he does have a winning record (4-2-1).

If Vladar is able to go, but somewhat diminished?

Either way, it could afford the Pens a chance to claw back into the series.

Šilovs In?

Speaking of goaltending, although nothing formal has been announced, it’s rumored that Arturs Šilovs may start Game 4 tonight. Stuart Skinner was on the ice for the optional game day skate, which usually isn’t the case when he starts. On the flip side, Šilovs was not on the ice.

Wow. I’m not at all sure this is a good idea. The Latvian has basically been in cold storage for the past couple of weeks. To say nothing of his .850 SV% over his last 11 appearances…and difficulty controlling rebounds…and stopping long-range shots.

It just seems like a huge gamble. Especially given how hot and (mostly) cold Šilovs has been.

Déjà vu All Over Again?

In my series preview, I referenced the 2012 Conference Quarter-Final series when an equally brash Flyers squad upset us in shocking fashion in six games. Philly took the first three games of that set, including the first two in Pittsburgh, by scores of 4-3, 8-5 and 8-4.

The Pens came back to thump Philly in Game 4 by a 10-3 margin, then won Game 5 in the ‘Burgh as well. Our comeback attempt ended when the Flyers beat us handily in Game 6, while Philly fans brusquely serenaded us with chants of “you can’t beat us.” Humiliating and infuriating to say the least. 

Hoping against hope this series has a different ending.