Unless a club happens to be in the throes of a tear-it-down-to-the-floorboards rebuild, as a general rule it’s the goal of any NHL team to make the playoffs and perhaps even vie for the Stanley Cup. Under the stewardship of POHO/GM Kyle Dubas, our Penguins have been more or less pursuing that aim as well, albeit with a strong focus on stockpiling picks and prospects for the future.
In effect, serving two masters.
Now that the roster appears to be pretty much set, it begs the question: Will we make the playoffs?
I’ve compiled a list of factors, both for and against.
REASONS WE WILL
Offense. Barring a trade or a significant and unforeseen drop-off from the likes of mainstays Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, scoring goals shouldn’t be an issue. Nor is there any reason to think Egor Chinakhov, he of the wicked shot and lightning release, won’t continue to emerge as a lethal goal scorer. Depending on his role, Nicholas Robertson could be poised for a Chinny-esque breakout. Sharpshooting Andrei Kuzmenko (20.4 career shooting percentage) could improve on last season’s output (13 goals), provided he receives ample power-play duty. Perhaps super rookie Ben Kindel will improve on his 17-goal performance as well.
Dan Muse and his staff. Muse & Co. did an outstanding job with the material they had to work with last season. While establishing a positive, encouraging environment where players could thrive, they coaxed career seasons or close to it out of a host of skaters, including Noel Acciari, Justin Brazeau, Connor Dewar, Anthony Mantha, Tommy Novak, Ryan Shea, Parker Wotherspoon and Chinakhov. To say nothing of continued excellence from our core forwards and a brilliant bounce-back season from blueline ace Erik Karlsson. Unfortunately, four of the aforementioned players are no longer with the team, and a fifth (Brazeau) doesn’t appear to have a clear-cut spot.
REASONS WE WON’T
Defense. Dubas significantly overhauled our defensive corps, adding depth to the right side while stripping down an already thin left side, to such an extent that 35-year-old right-shot veteran Trevor van Riemsdyk may be called upon to plug a port side slot. It remains to be seen whether or not newbies Kaedan Korczak and fringe-rearguard Declan Carlile can fill the skates of departees Shea and Wotherspoon, both of whom made significant, career-altering strides last season.
Chemistry. Although an odd jumble of established stars, green kids and veterans who had something to prove, it all meshed beautifully last season en route to a second-place finish in the Metro. You could sense a palpable, Three Musketeers-ish, all-for-one and one-for-all spirit and chemistry. Wholly reminiscent of the original Vegas “Misfits” squad of 2017-18. Unfortunately, as he is wont to do, Dubas once again put the team through a blender this summer. Will the newbies assimilate as well as last season’s additions? IMHO, they’ll be hard-pressed to do so.
Physicality (or lack of). For the first time in ages, the Pens boasted a lineup that could hold its own physically. However, some of our more rugged players, most notably Acciari, Mantha, Wotherspoon and defenseman Connor Clifton have been stripped from the mix (heavyweight Boko Imama, too). Leaving us about a quart down in the scrap/aggression department when other clubs such as the Capitals and Panthers are adding beef and muscle.
Age. While it pains me to suggest it, the wheels are going to eventually fall off the wagon for our revered core. Indeed, Father Time already appears to have caught up with long-time defensive bulwark Kris Letang, who endured a difficult season in ’25-26. Perhaps Crosby, too. Beginning on January 25, our heretofore wonderfully consistent captain experienced a rather significant drop-off, tallying just two goals and 17 points over his last 18 regular-season games to go with a minus-4. Yes, I know he was dealing with a lower-body injury for most of that time. But his output began to wane prior to the Olympics and the Radko Gudas hit.
Competition. While we’re more or less treading water, four teams that finished below us in the Metro, the Devils, Flyers, Rangers and especially the Caps figure to be improved. Ditto the Panthers and Leafs over in the Atlantic. The increased level of competition could squeeze us out of a playoff spot.
WILDCARD
Goaltending. How will our young tandem of Sergei Murashov and Arturs Šilovs (with Joel Blomqvist waiting in the wings) handle regular duty behind our restructured defense?
FINAL VERDICT
While I hate to be a pessimist, especially on the heels of last season, when I add up all the factors I’m just not feeling a playoff spot for this season’s crew. Which could potentially spark a sell-off at the trade deadline of the likes of Karlsson, Kuzmenko, Rakell, Rust and even newcomer van Riemsdyk.
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Rick,
The quick and dirty answer is your gut feeling of no, the Penguins will not make the playoffs will be accurate, barring external factors. Dubas really fumbled this off-season. Unless there is a miracle, the 2026-2027 incarnation of the Penguins will be far worse than the 2025-2026 rendition. Any hopes of our Penguins making the playoffs this coming campaign hang by a thread on external factors that the team cannot control,
* Divisional rivals experiencing serious injury bugs
* Divisional rivals over tinkering so that their team over-hauls ruined their chemistry
* The injury bug knocking out several of the low-end veteran road blocks, allowing several of the prospects to be given a chance and then take advantage of that chance (Like Guentzel).
* Significantly biased refereeing that gives the black-and-gold a serious advantage over their opponents.
* Some combination of some or all of the above.
Dubas' single minded pursuit of a redundancy in Left Wingers and Right-Handed Defensemen coming up with little to nothing in return for his attempt to over-stock areas of strength, all the while delpleting areas of weakness in the process