Projecting Our Penguins

With 27 games down, roughly a third of our Penguins 2021-22 schedule is in the books. Since it’s a simple matter of multiplying present production by three (okay, technically 3.03) I thought it might be fun to do some projecting and see how our Pens might wind up, stats-wise.

The lone exception is Sidney Crosby. I assumed Sid will play in all our remaining games and projected his numbers accordingly. (Hope I didn’t unwittingly invoke the dreaded PenguinPoop curse.) Since he has yet to play, I plugged in Evgeni Malkin’s numbers from last season.

Here goes:

SCORING
Skaters	Pos	GP	G	A	PTS
Jake Guentzel	LW	72	45	36	81
Sidney Crosby	C	69	18	51	69
Evan Rodrigues	C/RW	82	24	33	57
Kris Letang	RD	69	3	48	51
Jeff Carter	C	72	24	21	45
Kasperi Kapanen	RW	82	18	27	45
Danton Heinen	LW/RW	82	24	15	39
John Marino	RD	82	3	33	36
Brock McGinn	RW	82	21	12	33
Teddy Blueger	C	82	18	12	30
Jason Zucker	LW	82	12	18	30
Evgeni Malkin	C	33	8	20	28
Bryan Rust	RW	36	6	21	27
Mike Matheson	LD	72	3	24	27
Zach Aston-Reese	LW	75	3	21	24
Marcus Pettersson	LD	69	3	15	18
Drew O’Connor	C/LW	48	9	6	15
Brian Dumoulin	LD	66	0	15	15
Dominik Simon	LW/RW	63	3	9	12
Mark Friedman	RD	33	0	12	12
Brian Boyle	C	54	6	0	6
Tristan Jarry	G	64	0	6	6
Chad Ruhwedel	RD	69	0	6	6
Sam Lafferty	C/RW	21	0	3	3
Juuso Riikola	LD	15	0	3	3
Casey DeSmith	G	18	0	0	0
Pierre Olivier-Joseph	LD	12	0	0	0
GOALTENDING
Goalies		GP	SH	AVE	SVPCT
Tristan Jarry	G	64	9	1.92	.934
Casey DeSmith	G	18	3	3.04	.905

The numbers are eye catching, especially with respect to Jake Guentzel (a projected 45 goals) and our middle-six forwards. Based on current production rates and barring injuries, GM Ron Hextall’s key free agent pickups, Danton Heinen, Brock McGinn and Evan Rodrigues all are on pace for 20-plus goals. So is Jeff Carter, Hextall’s big acquisition at last season’s trade deadline.

Other clubs have gotten far less from higher profile signings. Boston’s Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno (five goals combined) come to mind.

If present trends continue, Crosby and Kris Letang will enjoy strong seasons offensively, despite a bit of a dip in goal production. John Marino is emerging as a solid point producer from the back end. I’ll take 18 goals from Teddy Blueger any day of the week. Likewise, if Tristan Jarry stays on course he’ll far exceed expectations.

Among the most glaring disappointments? Kasperi Kapanen (from whom much is expected), Jason Zucker (on pace for only a dozen goals) and Zach Aston-Reese, although ZAR’s offensive shortcoming are mitigated to an extent by strong defensive play and a willingness to take the body (a projected 288 hits). Given his elite skating and puck skills, you’d like to see more from Mike Matheson.

Although he’s shone in terms of possession (59.5 Corsi), ditto Dominik Simon.

As a team? The Pens are on pace for roughly 99 points, give or take a point. It’s generally believed that 95-96 points will be enough to qualify for the postseason.