Penguins Update: A Peek Inside the Numbers

Being an old-timer, I confess to going a lot by the eye test when I evaluate players. And I’ll be the first to admit that I’m a little behind the curve when it comes to utilizing the plethora of advanced stats available these days.

Corsi For and Against, Fenwick For and Against, Scoring Chances For and Against, High Danger Scoring Chances For and Against. Whew! A guy could literally drown in a sea of stats.

With our Penguins idle last night, I thought I’d peruse Natural Stat Trick to get a feel for how our guys are doing on an individual basis. For my evaluation, I decided to keep things simple.

In my mind, the aim of any hockey player is to be on the ice for goals for your team while helping to prevent goals against your team. So I ranked our players based on the difference between actual Goals For Percentage and Expected Goals For Percentage. All values are for 5v5 play.

I confess there are some surprises. Among the forwards, kids Anthony Angello and Radim Zohorna are far exceeding expectations, as is Kasperi Kapanen. Mark Jankowski and Zach Aston-Reese have performed much better than I thought, at least against expected values.

On flip side, our big guns are in the middle of the pack. Not to pick on him, but Jason Zucker’s negative metrics reinforce the notion that he’s underachieving. Ditto mistake-prone Sam Lafferty and, surprisingly, Evan Rodrigues and Frederick Gaudreau.

The defense was more true to form. The values serve to reinforce the notion that Cody Ceci, Brian Dumoulin and Kris Letang are enjoying strong seasons. I was mildly surprised to learn that Marcus Pettersson has been on the ice for the fewest 5v5 goals against among the regulars and that, overall, he’s done a decent job. A clear-cut case where the stats don’t necessarily match my perception.

It should be noted that metrics don’t take a lot of things into account. Namely, how a player is deployed and what role he fills, who he plays with and who he plays against.

Still, I found this interesting. Hope you will, too.

Forwards
Player	GP	GF	GA	GF%	xGF	xGA	xGF%	Diff%
Angello	19	5	1	83.33	3.75	3.53	51.49	31.84
Zohorna	8	7	2	77.78	2.19	2.48	46.90	30.88
Kapanen	34	28	14	66.67	15.67	17.49	47.26	19.41
Jankowski	45	12	10	54.55	9.20	12.84	41.76	12.79
Carter	8	6	3	66.67	4.08	3.47	54.06	12.61
Aston-Reese	39	19	11	63.33	16.26	15.24	51.62	11.71
McCann	37	27	15	64.29	17.20	14.09	54.97	9.32
Blueger	37	22	17	56.41	13.16	14.27	47.99	8.42
Tanev	32	18	12	60.00	13.63	12.33	52.50	7.50
Sceviour	40	12	11	52.17	8.46	10.40	44.87	7.30
Crosby	49	34	26	56.67	30.55	28.37	51.85	4.82
Guentzel	50	35	30	53.85	31.35	31.41	49.95	3.90
Rust	50	34	28	54.84	30.79	28.76	51.70	3.14
Malkin	29	18	18	50.00	14.22	15.13	48.45	1.55
Zucker	32	16	22	42.11	14.35	16.49	46.54	-4.43
Lafferty	33	9	15	37.50	8.79	12.08	42.10	-4.60
Rodrigues	34	15	18	45.45	15.30	15.22	50.14	-4.69
Gaudreau	13	4	4	50.00	6.44	5.27	54.99	-4.99
O’Connor	10	1	3	25.00	1.80	2.47	42.08	-17.08
Currie	1	0	0	NA	0.00	0.31	0.00	NA
Defense
Player	GP	GF	GA	GF%	xGF	xGA	xGF%	Diff%
Friedman	2	3	0	100.00	0.81	0.22	78.35	21.65
Ceci	47	33	22	60.00	24.69	24.86	49.83	10.17
Dumoulin	35	28	20	58.33	23.47	24.23	49.20	9.13
Letang	49	42	33	56.00	32.60	35.91	47.59	8.41
Pettersson	41	23	18	56.10	21.14	19.90	51.51	4.59
Joseph	16	9	9	50.00	8.62	10.17	45.87	4.13
Matheson	42	36	32	52.94	25.00	25.25	49.75	3.19
Riikola	2	1	1	50.00	0.64	0.70	47.76	2.24
Marino	46	30	30	50.00	26.21	27.97	48.37	1.63
Ruhwedel	16	8	6	57.14	6.61	5.26	55.68	1.46
Czuczman	2	0	2	0.00	0.13	0.47	20.98	-20.98
Weber	2	0	2	0.00	0.59	1.07	35.47	-35.47

Back in the Saddle

Gaudreau and Evgeni Malkin are cleared for contact and have joined the team for the road trip to Washington. Sparkplug Brandon Tanev, who skated with the taxi squad but isn’t fully recovered, will also make the trip.